LONDON, January 2, 2026 – Industry analysts are forecasting significant increases in personal computer prices for 2026, attributing the trend to persistent shortages of DRAM and NAND memory driven by manufacturers prioritizing high-margin high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for artificial intelligence data centers.
Research firm IDC has outlined downside scenarios where the global PC market could contract by up to 8.9% in 2026, with average selling prices rising 6-8% in pessimistic cases.
A moderate outlook projects a 4.9% shipment decline and 4-6% price growth. The forecasts, updated from an earlier 2.4% contraction estimate, reflect supply growth lagging demand—DRAM at 16% year-over-year and NAND at 17%, both below historical averages.
TrendForce similarly predicts ongoing price pressure, with quarterly DRAM contract rates expected to rise by double digits into 2026.
Major producers Samsung, SK Hynix , and Micron are reallocating capacity to HBM for AI accelerators, limiting conventional memory for consumer devices. Micron’s exit from its Crucial consumer brand by early 2026 further tightens retail supply.
PC vendors have begun signaling adjustments. Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and Asus have notified customers of potential 15-20% hikes starting mid-2026, with some pre-built systems offered without RAM to manage costs. Memory accounts for 10-20% of device bills of materials, amplifying impacts.
The shortage coincides with the Windows 10 end-of-support refresh cycle and AI PC promotions, creating what IDC calls a “perfect storm.” Low-end models may downgrade specifications, such as returning to 8GB RAM baselines.
Analysts recommend purchasing upgrades soon if needed, as relief appears unlikely before 2027 when new fabs ramp. The situation illustrates AI’s indirect effects on consumer electronics, where data center demand reshapes supply chains.
